The State of Evangelicalism

This particular dinner podcast involves Ed Stetzer who runs the research program at Lifeway Publishing. We asked him the question, is evangelicalism really in decline? He brought to the dinner a discussion of the current status of evangelicalism in the United States. I think you’ll find it a fascinating conversation and I even think you’ll find the answer quite surprising.

The honorable Ed Stetzer from Nashville, Tennessee.

So we're going to pick up that discussion now and in particular I want to talk about kind of where we are and where we're going in evangelicalism. You mentioned the Bebbington definition of evangelicalism. So it might be good – most people probably on seminary campuses are aware of that definition. But it probably wouldn't be a bad idea to go through that for people who say, "Well, what is evangelicalism allegedly anyway?"

So for example main line Protestantism you tend not to have a strict conversionism. They don't say, "Well, you're 11. Have you received Christ?" So that's kind of an evangelical process if you will or focus.

So what Bebbington said was –

So the Bebbington quadrilateral, so four things they saw biblicism, high regard for the bible. Some would say inerrancy. Dallas is an inerrantist institution, right?

So a perfect example for this would be, I mentioned George Bush a minute ago. George Bush, senior H.W. Bush was a mainline Protestant. So one of the awkward moments was I asked him are you born again? And he said, "Well, I'm Episcopal. I've been Episcopalian all my life." But there wasn't that answer when you asked George Bush that question or Barak Obama that question. There are conversion stories that articulated in both of those cases.

So conversionism is – that's why George W. Bush is also considered an evangelical where his father was not, using Texas examples. And then activism; the belief that the gospel is somehow shared or expressed or lived the implications or lived out.

So that's as good a definition probably as many. There's different ways to define it. So sometimes you just ask people. Are you an evangelical? I was talking to Rodney Stark a few weeks ago at – he's at Baylor now, but very world-renowned sociologist. And he said, "That's the best definition. If you ask people then if they say, yes, they are." He says, "It's like asking a democrat are you a democrat? They say yes, you count them as a democrat."

So there's some validity in that. But also a lot of people are inactive evangelicals. So there's – but then there's beliefs. So some organizations have created belief constructs that say this makes it evangelical. There's actually what we call – I mentioned earlier the rel tread construct, which is a research construct sits over top of the GSS. So there is a lot of different ways to do that. And the rel tread really bases on do they go to evangelical denomination.

So over here I met some folks who are ACNA. The Anglican Church of North America. Their pastor is a friend of mine. And I work a lot with the ACNA. Arch Bishop Duncan before. But so in ACNA they would be decidedly evangelical. More than evangelical, but they're evangelical. But then the Episcopal Church which is really from, which they came out of would not be.

So both are Anglican in their belief. One because of the biblicism, crucicentrism, conversionism, activism would be evangelical with some others mixed in as well. But only the evangelical one would be main line protestant. But statistically that distinction is one of the most important distinctions you have to make. Because there really is a vast statistical difference.

And I would also say that theologically it's important. You have to – and I am not one, and Darrell I don't know where you are on this, I'm not one who thinks outside of evangelicalism there is no faith, and there is no salvation. But what I would say is, I mean I'm an evangelical, because I think it most aligns with the biblical text, the teachings, the call of Jesus. But I also recognize there are genuine believers outside of the evangelical traditions. But I think you have to sort of wrestle, what does that look like? Do we evangelize people who are a part of what some people call the grand tradition?

But who are outside of evangelicalism and don't express a born again experience. Actually I tend to do that, depending upon how they would articulate that; I tend to do that. So that's a long answer to your short question. But that's sort of the definition people often use.

But yeah, so Osteen is in a category about himself both by his influence, but also by – I mean he don't express enough theology to know where exactly to place him on a theological – well, I don't mean that in a mean sense. I mean I'm not – I mean it's obvious – I'm kind of a Bible thumping preacher. So I'm not – I come from a different realm but I have friends who are friends with Joel and if you look at the documents at that church it wouldn't look dissimilar to the documents at my church. It's just more of a public expression of what that looks like.

Or I shouldn't just say my church. "Oh, your church." It wouldn't look very different than your church either. But it gets that public expression is just different. That's probably what a lot of us define Joel Osteen by.

I mean think about it who are – we did a survey a few years ago. Who are the leading preachers in the United States, the people that are listening to the pastors listening to? So we asked all pastors and I forget who they were. Chuck Swindoll was on the list. I have to mention that, because that's important to you. I know he's like the fourth member of the trinity here. But it was Andy Stanley. I don't remember the order. Andy Stanley, Charles Stanley. It was John MacArthur. It was Chuck Swindoll. I think it was Chuck Smith. And it was devoid of any mainline protestant except Barbara Brown Taylor who is a remarkable writer and speaker in the mainline Protestant tradition.

But I think it's important that when you survey all Protestants the evangelical preachers are the one that they listen to. So those are the ones who are getting the book contracts, the book publishing deals, so if you can say you're an evangelical for as long as possible, and maybe not reveal your beliefs, but sort of hint at them, and sort of be seen as a prophet selling of evangelicals need to lighten up. I think what happens is you sort of – you become – I mean look at the emergent movement.

The God box is a famous building in Manhattan that was actually built related to some key leaders of industry and government who said, "We're going to put a place in Manhattan," so these mainline – they didn't call them mainline. They were just the churches could be close to the center of power. Well, now they're kind of closing up the National Council of Churches is closing up, looking for a smaller place, because they just have the Episcopal Church. Katharine Jefferts Schori, who is actually a friend, but they're shrinking down the whole structure. But they still have – I mean everyone in the media knows who Katharine Jefferts Schori is who leads the – one of the fastest shrinking churches in America today.

But probably many people in the mainline media, when I talk to them last night Katie Couric tweeted – I guess it was the night before last. No, it was last night. Katie Couric tweeted, "Heard a new word in church today. Eschatolgoy anyone?" In other words what does this mean?

And Christians responded as graciously as they always do on the internet. But I'll tell you they don't know who Chuck Swindoll is. They don't know Tim. They might know who Tim Keller is because he has engaged some of those levers of power. But I think that's part of the – it makes it look bigger than it actually is. But emergent is an organization and then eventually a movement.

It had a lot of promise. I mean Phyllis Tickle wrote a book, The Great Emergence, maybe. I can't remember the exact title. But she wrote the book and said, we've kind of talked about the emergence as this great 500 year move of the church and I kind of felt bad, because Phyllis is a great writer. But to write the book, it's called Great Emergence. To write the book saying this is it how Christianity is changing and why. This is one of the great moves – like about – it got published and then a year later it all sort of collapses. And now someone online called me an emergent the other day. And I'm like, "Is that a thing? Is that still a thing?" I mean can you even call somebody that?

So I think those are some of the shifts. So I think evangelicals and for all else false still is the – still has a center. People are trying to reclaim that center. I think again I think your evangelical manifesto was an attempt; this we believe was an attempt. The gospel coalition probably has been the most successful of the attempts as far as in prominence. But sort of hasn't rallied. Certainly Armenians, Dispensationalists, Pentecostals and others, so I don't know. I think we need another rallying point. And I think again I'll just be blunt. I think people like you Darrell and people at other schools and other institutions and other churches need to say this we believe, we're in this together. This is what evangelicalism is. And give it now face to some of the angry rhetoric that sometimes we see.

But I think and I really wish I could find this. It's kind of driving me nuts. But I think that it might be helpful to know that if you look at two major – Jordan Campbell is a Great Center for the Study of Global Christianity. And then there's – gosh I'm trying to remember the other research firm. But they both sort of did a look at the percentage of evangelicals and the number of evangelicals in North America. And of course Canada is slightly different, but everything is just sort of lowered in Canada – you know it's done numerically. If you look and here it is. Here it is.

So here's a couple of graphs that may help give us a picture of this. Here's Operation World Evangelicals. And if you look at, let me just zero in on Northern America. You can see that about 24 percent in 1970 were evangelicals. It went up 2010 to 26 or 27 percent and it’s projected to go down to 26.5 percent.

Now you tell me, because this is real research. The Center For The Study of Global Christianity, Christianity's global context. This is not pop stuff, so this is real research. And you tell me is a .3 percent decline from 2010 to 2020 collapse. I don't think I would say that. Now I actually prefer the definition from the World Christian Database of Evangelicals; this is Todd Johnson's work. And the reason I prefer it is it's not – this is more identification. This is like I can count you in a denomination. So it's higher. But I think it's a more accurate statistic. And if we were to use the number that I use is that of Northern American about 15.4 percent in 1970 dropped to about 13.5 in 2010. Peaked in the '90's. And then from 2010 to 2020 about 13.4.

So pretty much stable now. So I think and again it's I can write it out if it helps, but I think that about 12 to 13 percent of the population in North America is actively convictionally evangelical. And that number has not – is not substantially declining, but has remained relatively steady for the last several decades.

But the Latino migration has bolstered Catholics. It hasn't bolstered mainline Protestants there. And evangelicals it has.

And in that conversation we talked a little bit about the most churched state, the most evangelical church, but churched period state is actually Mississippi where there are more Baptists than people.

So it appears the soil secularizes.

And if you read the column, I talk about the nuns, and you can Google that. But I think it looks like the Northwest. The future of faith in the United States, I don't think looks like Europe. Too many wars fought. I mean there's blood spilled for hundreds of years over "Christianity". But the Pacific Northwest there are – and I use the example of the four square. I work a lot with the four square church. Any four square folks here? Yeah, okay, awesome. So I probably met you somewhere along the way. No, you don't go to national meeting? Okay. I've been to three or four of the last national meetings. But good people.

But they have robust churches throughout the Northwest. And they have 160,000 water baptisms. When you're Pentecostal you have to add the word water before baptisms. It matters. It's a different kind. 160,000 water baptisms, 40 plus churches planted. And so what you see in the Pacific Northwest is the culture is sort of over it. The culture is not over it in Mississippi or Texas or Tennessee. The culture is sort of over it. But there's still a – some decent percentage of the population that's an evangelical. Churches are being planted and growing and reaching people. But the culture by and large is more secular. I think that's the future. I don't think the future is New England. I think the future is more the Northwest. I think that's what Texas will look like 50 to 100 years from now.

And I could tell you that's been the prediction for a very, very long time. But again statistically contrary to the doom and gloom people who will write a book, poll some stats, one of the things you'll find is people will always find the worst possible stats that are an outlier that nobody else has peer reviewed or looked at. And say, "Look it's all gonna die, buy my book to fix it."

And I would say to you that you're probably going to go to a church, most churches are plateaued or declining. But plateaued means plateau, it doesn't mean collapse or close. So you're probably going to go to plateau or decline churches. In the '70's percentages are that. And so I think you should prepare yourself with leadership skills and revitalization skills, and to – if you're going to pastor specifically. I think what you mentioned.

So anyway. So what I would say is that there's still going to be some Bible belter stuff. But I would say one of the challenges culturally that we're going to have to address is that most churches, your denominations of the churches from which you come, get locked in the era where they are most successful. So Baptists, I hail from a Baptist tradition. If the '50's come back they are ready to go.

And what I would say, I look around now and a lot of churches, their band lacks like the Beach Boys not in the '60's but today. And I look around there's no 25 year olds in the building. And so what I would say is – and this is the Bible church tradition. So thriving in the '70's and the '80's let's look around the Bible church tradition today.

I've consulted with several of them; stuck, unsure what to do. Kind of launched in this movement and now kind of struggling. So what I would say is I think you're going to have to go into situations where you're going to have to lead people to think in missional ways is the phrase that I tend to use. But in missionary like ways. So how do we engage a culture that's shifted? It's shifted culturally. It's become more secular. It's become more tolerant. And so you can't get up and just say, "Well, this is what the bible says." Well, I mean so – I'm an expository preaching kind of guy. So how do I get up and to a secular society and say, well, this is what the bible says. And they say so what? And so if I'm trained to point by point, word by word, verse by verse teach people what the Bible says and nobody cares what the Bible say –

That's Marvel Comics stuff. But today that runs on mainline television. People take it seriously. And they don't even consider what the pedigree is of where the information is coming from.

Well, our time for our interview, I think is up.

I recently flew down to meet with my dad who is not a believer. When I say he's not a believer, I'm not saying he's a Lutheran or something. Sometimes, when you're with our people you've got to say it means he's really not a believer. So there are some misperceptions. I talked to my dad about what it means. Why did Jesus die on the cross for our sins and in our place? His perception was, maybe as an example, maybe as a good person. Maybe Evangelicals think that you're all dying and going to hell and most of you are not good enough. So, I address the misperceptions.

For my dad, he had correct perceptions. He just had different beliefs. Ultimately, for him, he doesn't believe that sin is cosmic treason; it breaks the relationship. All have sinned and fall short of the glory of God. Since he has no pre-suppositional belief in the Bible, let's look at Romans. Let's go down the Roman road. Roman road would mean nothing to him. Both of those have to be at work.

What I try to do, in any evangelistic conversation is to deal with some of the misperceptions that are there if they have them. Then I try to maybe undermine some of their perceptions or disagreements with that. I find Tim Keller's stuff really helpful on this, how to undermine some of the arguments, defeater arguments he calls them. You might Google Tim Keller defeater arguments if you're so inclined. I think that's necessary today.

When Darrell was a kid in the '20s, if you said to somebody, you need to be saved. People would say you're right, I do. When I first became a Christian I was a young man and I came home. The first one I witnessed to was my dad. This is 1977. We grew up Irish Catholic. The Catholic Church was really the church we didn't go to. We knew where it was and we didn't like Protestants. But I had become a believer. I go to my dad. I say, dad, are you saved? My dad says saved from what? I said, I don't know but you need to be.

In a world of the '50s, if I said are you saved, people would've got that. Today, those words are 15 definitions away from having any meaning. Saved from what? What does it mean sin? What does it mean to be dead in our trespasses and sins? Why did Jesus die on the cross for our sins in our place? We're a harvest oriented people in an unseeded field. Think on that for a second. We think the standard Evangelical pick up line for the last 30 years is, “If you were to die today…” –

I come from a family of lots of non-believers. My mother comes to Christ first. Later, she gets married and then migrated into Orthodoxy, Eastern Orthodoxy, like a lot of Evangelicals did in the '80s. I didn't, obviously. But the rest of my family are not.

I was here at lunchtime and there are people from Pantego Bible Church here. They have a church plant at a Pantego Bible Church. I met the pastor. He comes to me at a conference I was speaking at. He says are you related to Bill Stetzer? I said, yeah. I have a Bill Stetzer. He goes to my church. Oh, that's not the same Bill Stetzer. I can assure you. It turns out it's my uncle who comes to Jesus in his 50s at a church plant in Texas. We moved out of New York City with all of our family. I would have never guessed. So, right now, there's my uncle and I both get to evangelize my dad. In God's goodness and grace, he's at work.